War and Peace: Book 3, Part 2, Chapter 5
Jun. 30th, 2016 08:48 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
osprey_archerThis both is and is not a War and Peace post. I’ve gotten to the part of the book where Natasha falls ill following her broken engagement, and I was feeling a bit smug, as modern people are wont to do when confronted with the medical incompetence of the past, while Tolstoy snipes about the fact that doctors are useful purely for their placebo effect: the doctors “were of use to Natasha because they rubbed her ‘bobo’ and assured her that it would soon be over if the coachman went to the chemist’s in the Arbat and got some powders and pills in pretty boxes for a ruble and seventy kopecks, and if, without fail, she took these powders dissolved in boiled water and intervals of two hours, neither more not less.”
But then I came across this terrifying article, Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science, the gist of which is that modern medical research is also pretty awful at figuring out what’s actually wrong with people and how to fix it: “80 percent of non-randomized studies (by far the most common type) turn out to be wrong.”
Eighty percent! Forsooth!
The article goes into some depth about why this is so. Basically, a study that suggest drug X or nutrient Y can cause dramatic health improvements net researchers funding and career advancement, and therefore researchers desperately want those findings. They aren’t usually lying outright; they’re led astray by their own wishful thinking. And drug companies will test and retest a drug until they get a study that shows it having an effect.
The article is based on the meta-analysis of John Ioannidis, who offers the cheerful advice that the layperson should just ignore medical research. Most of it’s wrong, and anyway the body is an immensely complex system and we barely understand it. There is no one best diet or exercise regime, no magic bullet to ensure longevity, so just chillax.
From one point of view this is cheerful advice: no more fretting over dueling studies about whether a glass of red wine with dinner will lengthen your life or hasten your demise! But, like Natasha, I think that most of us like to have faith that someone out there knows how to fix what ails us, and from that point of view none of this is cheerful at all.
***
In other War and Peace news, Napoleon is invading Russia, and Pierre, God bless his strange soul, has become interested in numerology. By dint of adding up the letters in his name (using a different variation of his name each time), Pierre has discovered that his name adds up to 666 - the mark of the beast - just like Napoleon’s! Which means that he must in some mystical way be connected to Napoleon!!!
Oh Pierre. I love Pierre. He really is not the brightest candle in the box, though.
But then I came across this terrifying article, Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science, the gist of which is that modern medical research is also pretty awful at figuring out what’s actually wrong with people and how to fix it: “80 percent of non-randomized studies (by far the most common type) turn out to be wrong.”
Eighty percent! Forsooth!
The article goes into some depth about why this is so. Basically, a study that suggest drug X or nutrient Y can cause dramatic health improvements net researchers funding and career advancement, and therefore researchers desperately want those findings. They aren’t usually lying outright; they’re led astray by their own wishful thinking. And drug companies will test and retest a drug until they get a study that shows it having an effect.
The article is based on the meta-analysis of John Ioannidis, who offers the cheerful advice that the layperson should just ignore medical research. Most of it’s wrong, and anyway the body is an immensely complex system and we barely understand it. There is no one best diet or exercise regime, no magic bullet to ensure longevity, so just chillax.
From one point of view this is cheerful advice: no more fretting over dueling studies about whether a glass of red wine with dinner will lengthen your life or hasten your demise! But, like Natasha, I think that most of us like to have faith that someone out there knows how to fix what ails us, and from that point of view none of this is cheerful at all.
***
In other War and Peace news, Napoleon is invading Russia, and Pierre, God bless his strange soul, has become interested in numerology. By dint of adding up the letters in his name (using a different variation of his name each time), Pierre has discovered that his name adds up to 666 - the mark of the beast - just like Napoleon’s! Which means that he must in some mystical way be connected to Napoleon!!!
Oh Pierre. I love Pierre. He really is not the brightest candle in the box, though.
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no subject
Date: 2016-06-30 01:03 pm (UTC)<3 <3
I'm sure medical science has improved a little. For one thing, we have anesthetics! And I don't mind a placebo effect as long as it works.
eta I'm probably just being glib because I have the worst cold (or whatever it is) and nothing to be done about it.
no subject
Date: 2016-06-30 01:16 pm (UTC)Medicine has done some wonderful things lowering the child mortality rate, so I shouldn't knock it too much. It was just a bit alarming to realize that medical science is still a bit out to sea with most things less clear-cut than the measles.
no subject
Date: 2016-07-01 04:24 am (UTC)Since I've been inundated with doctors telling me that I'm crazy, have an incurable and untreatable disease that means I'll be in agony for the rest of my life, and it's all my fault, I find the idea that they might be idiots spouting bullshit quite cheering.
no subject
Date: 2016-07-01 01:49 pm (UTC)Maybe medical schools should have seminars about the theory and practice of saying "I don't know."
no subject
Date: 2016-07-01 04:04 pm (UTC)Most of it’s wrong, and anyway the body is an immensely complex system and we barely understand it. There is no one best diet or exercise regime, no magic bullet to ensure longevity, so just chillax. --this is basically exactly what I think. Especially the part about the body being barely understood (which makes me hugely skeptical of much medical advice ...
no subject
Date: 2016-07-02 01:03 am (UTC)There are a few bits of medical advice that seem pretty solid - the link between cigarettes and bad health outcomes seems pretty well-established, for instance - but most of the more fiddly stuff seems really chancy. Will massive amounts of vitamin C really do anything for a cold? Who knows?
no subject
Date: 2016-07-02 03:49 am (UTC)Yeah: even when you can see a correlation, the cause-and-effect aspect is not clear, like, at all. (But I agree with you about tobacco)